Argentina: Barley crop estimate steady at 4.75 mln tonnes

Hot weather was becoming a dryness concern for corn and soybeans in Argentina and added to the already growing farmer reluctance to sell barley (and wheat). However, recent rains have provided short-term relief, but farmer selling still remains well behind previous years, RMI Analytics said in their latest report earlier this month.

The analysts’ production estimate for Argentina remains steady at 4.75 mln tonnes, with a range of quality results across Buenos Aires province and further north towards Santa Fe and Cordoba. Overall the quality on average is manageable. For example, higher proteins (up to 12%) in the Bahia Blanca area may fulfil some special export malting barley demand.

Ending stocks have rebounded slightly from crop 2022 levels but the current slow export pace is well below the past two years. The trade continues to await news from the new government on potentially major changes to export regimes for agricultural goods, including barley.

Amidst a very quiet market, FOB prices continue to slide lower, and prices for both malting and feed barley are staying competitive in a global context. A recent global malting barley tender provided some much needed demand but the result was reportedly awarded to other origins (e.g. France). However, demand remains present in the market for specific quality, for both immediate and deferred shipping periods which validates that positions remain open. Farmer prices continue to be based upon a blend of official/unofficial (80/20%) exchange rates. Potential alteration to export tax rates, and/or a further peso devaluation could dramatically change the involvement of Argentina in export channels.