Argentina: Barley crop development continues to be favourable
Continued favourable crop development is the update from Argentina, with widespread rain falling across all key barley growing regions. These rains are beneficial as the season’s total rainfall has trailed the longer-term average in south-west Buenos Aires province, following the good early moisture profile in March, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.
The experts’ Argentine barley crop estimate remains at 4.59 mln tonnes, which is toward the upper end of trade estimates.
RMI Analytics’ export estimate for Argentine barley still calls for 3 mln tonnes with agood crop outcome expected, and a tight global spring barley situation in place. Early October frost events had some minor yield impacts in the central and north-west barley regions with the severity low but likely limits the upside yield potential.
The continued heavy rains in southern Brazil are a concern and raise questions about the achievement of malt quality in that region.
Other forecasts (USDA) call for a slight reduction in Argentina barley export levels, which is possible as Australia returns to supplying barley to China. Export declarations for crop 2022 are 3.1 mln tonnes with 70% FAQ/feed (e.g. China) and 30% malting barley. For crop 2023, the export declarations remain at very low levels as farmer selling is virtually non-existent and traders are reluctant to sell short.
A quiet market prevails as farmer selling remains non-existent ahead of the upcoming federal election (November 19th). The expectation for farmers is a new export tax regime will result with a new government. In addition, land rent increases this year leave the existing FAS bids unattractive to farmers and add to the liquidity challenge in the market. It is expected farmers remain hesitant to sell barley until harvest when final quality and yields are known (or prices increase).
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