Argentina: Barley production expected to be 4th largest in 10 years

More rainfall is reported for key barley regions in Argentina’s Buenos Aires province, Santa Fe and Cordoba. An increasing concern is the continued heavy rains across southern Brazil which could reduce the malting barley potential. Reports from Uruguay point to a continued good barley crop development. The crop estimate for Argentina remains at 4.59 mln tonnes, RMI Analytics said in their late October report.

The good crop conditions are bringing a rebound in Argentina’s barley production, to the 4th largest crop in 10 years. One more good rain is required to finish the barley crop development and if achieved, the crop potential is 4.7-4.9 mln tonnes. While southern Buenos Aires province looks very good, the areas further north and west are not as good. Ending stocks will remain low as long as exports remain above 3 mln tonnes and the good early harvest results in Australia will make competition fierce for sales in the current weak demand environment.

Argentina barley prices are down slightly in a very quiet market. There is absolutely no farmer selling as the entire market awaits the upcoming November 17th elections and an outcome which results in a new government would be viewed as favourable to farmers (e.g. lower barley export taxes).

Wheat FAS prices are higher than barley values, due to export license issues for wheat exporters and the impact of the special dollar exchange rate. Therefore farmers see barley prices as under-valued and this explains the slight increase in the malting barley FAS value. Otherwise, prices are more indicative at the moment, and will remain so until farmer selling materializes.