Australia: Late rains help boost barley crop forecast to 11 mln tonnes

Barley harvest is advancing in New South Wales and Western Australia under favourable weather, with first quality feedback favourable, RMI Analytics said in late October.

Proteins are lower than expected even after the rather severe drought conditions, with test weights and sizing also better than expected. Selection rates for malting barley are higher than anticipated.

Late rains have helped and RMI Analytics’ crop estimate is up slightly to 11 mln tonnes.

National barley harvest progress is still 10% or less (in the north) and farmers are busy harvesting canola. Crop production is down after three large crops, with ending stocks falling as a consequence, but the analysts’ forecast is for a greater crop due to the strong export demand anticipated and stocks sink toward the 10-year low.

CBH Group announced an all-time record tonnage of grain shipped (domestic and export) for the crop year ended September 30th. Renewed demand from China should help maintain this brisk export pace going forward.

Australian prices have fallen under the harvest pressure which has advanced in the north with surprisingly good early results. This adds to a bearish tone and farmer bids are already falling in anticipation of a good harvest outcome, while export trade is reported at these lower levels. China’s total barley imports jumped to 1.03 mln tonnes in September, boosting further the Australia prospects for good export demand now that the prohibitive tariff has been dropped.

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