EU & UK: Grain production forecast lowered due to early dryness in northern EU

COCERAL, a European association that focuses on agricultural trade, lowered its production forecast to 289.8 million tonnes in its latest projections for the 2023 European Union (EU) total grains crop, compared to its previous estimate of 296.7 million tonnes in June.

COCERAL said the main reason for September's downward revision for the 27 EU countries plus the United Kingdom is that the early dryness in the northern half of the EU has had a bigger impact than previously expected.

The cut in COCERAL’s fourth forecast for 2023 follows the June report in which it lowered its total production estimate from the 303.5 million tonnes it had forecast in March. The latest revision pushes estimates slightly below the drought-stricken 2022 crop of 291.1 million tonnes.

Crop estimates were lowered significantly for Germany, Bulgaria, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Latvia.

Wheat production (excluding durum) is expected at 141 million tonnes, down from 142.4 million in the last forecast and down from 143.6 million in 2022.

Barley production for 2023 is forecast at 54.7 million tonnes, down from the June forecast of 56.6 million and from 58.6 million in 2022.

The corn crop is now seen at 60.8 million tonnes, down from the previous forecast at 61.3 million but remaining stronger than last year’s crop that came in at just 52.7 million.

“France, Germany, Italy, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria are forecast to see bigger crops after the 2022 crop had been affected by severe drought and heat,” COCERAL said.

The rapeseed crop is seen at 20.4 million tonnes, compared to 21 million in the previous forecast and 19.9 million in 2022.

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