Argentina: Good barley crop development makes it possible to maintain production forecast at 4.59 mln tonnes

Beneficial rains have fallen across the Buenos Aires province where the rainfall is still favouring the eastern part of the key barley regions. The north-west regions of Cordoba and Santa Fe remain in need of further rain. Still, with the continued good development, RMI Analytics’ barley crop forecast for Argentina remains at 4.59 mln tonnes.

Ending stocks are forecast to decline due to stronger exports which are expected to be necessary due to the overall global tightness in two-row spring malting barley availability, the analysts said in their latest report.

With a lack of farmer selling interest and China’s opening of Australia as a supplier, there is little trade activity from Argentina at the moment. Export declarations are 3.05 mln tonnes from crop 2022, with 2.15 mln as FAQ and 0.9 mln as malting barley. Crop 2023 declarations are only 0.26 mln (80% FAQ barley).

Argentina barley prices are mostly unchanged in a quiet market with a general absence of demand from end-users. However, it is interesting to note farmers are beginning to show a willingness to sell small parcels of malting barley, at a current FAS price of USD240/tonne. RMI Analytics’ view is that this relates to the good crop condition and a favourable price level. At the same time, there is no interest in farmer selling of FAQ volumes. There is also a belief in the result of the upcoming election (new government) could cause a shift to lower export taxes, which would raise FAS prices as a result.

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