Australia: Barley crop forecast unchanged at 10.84 mln tonnes

Most key barley regions in Australia received beneficial rainfall over the past two weeks. This leaves the crop in very good condition except in New South Wales, as reported previously, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

The forecast for early September is dry and there remains a risk of the El Nino weather pattern negatively impacting the crop offering some caution about the final crop 2023 potential.

RMI Analytics forecast for Australian barley crop remains at 10.84 mln tonnes, unchanged from last month, as crop conditions still hold good soil moisture levels.

The drop in production from the previous three record years and the expected return of exports to China leave ending stocks forecast toward the lower end of the 10-year range. The trade has some concerns on exports to China, due to past phytosanitary problems, and awaits the smooth execution of the first shipments.

Australian barley prices are down slightly as the global market is weaker. West Australia remains the most competitive port origin, particularly given the tighter barley crop in northern New South Wales and Queensland. Farmer selling of new crop is limited, despite the good crop development at this stage.

The elimination of the Chinese tariff on Australian barley is now moving into a phase of barley shipments, with 10-12 cargos of feed/FAQ barley, reportedly traded to China.