World: Global grain inventories revised slightly upward but barley forecast to decline to 28-year low

Global inventories of total grains, which includes wheat, corn and other coarse grains, were revised slightly upward in the International Grains Council’s (IGC) latest Grain Market Report, released Aug. 17. But at 584 million tonnes, it would still be at its lowest level since 2014-15, registering a seventh consecutive year-on-year decline.

Wheat stocks are expected to continue their downward trend, falling 2 million tonnes, to 261 million, according to the IGC’s latest projection for the 2023-24 marketing year. Barley inventories are forecast to decline to a 28-year low.

“In contrast, maize (corn) carryovers will expand, led by an accumulation in the United States,” the IGC said.

Amid smaller predicted flows into Europe, the Americas and Near East Asia, global trade of total grains is forecast to decline by 4% in 2023-24, to 411 million tonnes, the Council said.

Total grains production is placed slightly lower by the IGC at 2.294 million tonnes with the losses mainly coming from reduced barley and oats output.

“Among the main grain growers, estimates for Canada, the European Union and China are reduced, partly offset by an upgrade for Ukraine, where yield prospects have improved,” the IGC said.

Global use for total grains is projected at 1 million tonnes higher than the previous forecast, on modest increases for feed and industrial uptake.

World soybean output is revised downward by 2 million tonnes, to 398 million, which would still be 30 million higher than the 2022-23 total.

“With consumption seen unchanged from before, inventories are set to accumulate markedly,” the IGC said, projecting a 10-million-tonne increase from the previous year to 64 million.

With an increased figure for Chinese imports more than offsetting reductions elsewhere, the IGC sees soybean trade reaching a record 171 million tonnes, a 2% increase from 2022-23.

Pulled lower by losses across grains and oilseeds, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index, which measures grain commodity prices, is forecast 4% lower than the July projection and 13% lower than a year ago. A surge of 13% in the rice sub-index kept the GOI from declining even further.

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