Australia: Positive weather trend boosts barley crop forecast for 2023
The threat of El Nino continues to be fought off by persistent rainfall in Australia and although there is still considerable time before the crop is assured, the present development remains very positive, RMI Analytics said in their late July report.
On the back of this good progress, the analysts’ forecast for the nation’s barley crop 2023 is raised slightly to 10.65 mln tonnes, up 0.2 mln, with more upside potential possible should favourable conditions in the weeks ahead materialize (there is more rain forecast for early August).
As daytime temperatures start to increase, a continuation of good rain events is critical to complete the crop’s positive development to-date.
Australia’s barley production continues to perform well, with three record years (2020-2022) preceding this year’s positive crop progress. Beyond putting the drought years of 2017-2019 far back into our memory, the continued strong performance for barley is evidence of very effective agronomics (and favourable weather too).
In alignment with the global price trend, Australian prices are higher. The dryness in New South Wales and Queensland is pushing east-coast values higher, as some grain is already being transferred into the eastern feed market from other port zones.
The wait for the official end to China’s barley tariff continues (it was expected in June!) and the trade is preparing for this eventuality. Meanwhile, Australia barley prices are competitive globally, and should therefore participate in trade when demand shows up.
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