EU: EU grain production outlook bearing impact of tough summer

The gloss has been wiped off 2023-24 European Union crop production over the past month after much drier than average growing conditions depleted soil-moisture reserves across large parts of western, central and northern Europe, as well as the eastern regions of Romania over the past 12 weeks. The negative yield impact has been amplified in many regions by distinctly warmer than usual temperatures through most of June and July, the Grain Central reported on August 1.

Now rainy conditions are forecast for much of Northern EU, creating challenging harvest conditions and raising winter-crop quality concerns. After a dry summer, the rains are coming at the worst possible time, with the primary benefit being replenished soil-moisture reserves ahead of the autumn planting campaign.

The European Commission’s (EC) latest production estimates were released late last week, and it has pegged total cereal production for the EU-27, which excludes the United Kingdom, at 276.02 million tonnes. This was off a planted area of 50.63 million hectares for an average yield across soft wheat, corn, barley, triticale, oats, rye, durum wheat and sorghum of 5.45t/ha. This is down across the board month on month and compares to last season’s area, yield and total production numbers of 51.05 mln ha, 5.24t/ha and 267.68 mln tonnes respectively.

Last week’s 2023-24 output update pegged soft wheat production at 127.43 mln tonnes off 21.92 mln ha for an average yield of 5.81t/ha. This compares to 126.74 mln tonnes off 21.9 mln ha and an average yield of 5.79t/ha last year.

This season’s EU-27 barley yield is now expected to be 4.74t/ha, down 6 percent from 5.03t/ha in 2022. The planted area is relatively unchanged year on year at 10.36 mln ha, but production is estimated to be 5.7pc lower than last year’s harvest at 49.14 mln tonnes.

Corn is the second-biggest cereal grain produced in the EU each season, and output from this year’s harvest is expected to be 21pc higher year on year at 63.24 mln tonnes but 13.9pc lower than the previous season’s output of 73.48 mln tonnes. This year’s planted area presently sits 4.5pc lower than last season at 8.45 mln ha, but the projected yield is the big mover, increasing 26.7pc from 5.91t/ha in 2022 to 7.48t/ha this season.

EU oilseed production is projected at 32.98 mln tonnes, 5.6pc higher than the 2022 harvest, which binned 31.23 mln tonnes. It is also 9.26pc higher than the 2021 harvest of 30.19 mln tonnes and 10.5pc higher than the five-year average of 29.84 mln tonnes. Rapeseed, or canola, is the biggest oilseed crop grown in the EU, with projected production currently sitting at 19.44 mln tonnes, 58.9pc of the total EU oilseed crop.

France is the EU’s biggest grain producer and exporter, with total cereal production in 2023-24 expected to be 63.79 mln tonnes off 8.85 mln ha for an average yield of 7.2t/ha across all commodities. Production is up 5.5pc year on year from 60.3 mln tonnes, off a slightly higher planted area of 8.96 mln ha.

French farm agency France AgriMer advised late last week that crop conditions were stable to slightly worse in the week to July 24, as the winter harvest continues to lag last season’s pace by an average of three days, but was still two days ahead of the five-year average. Late frosts in April in the eastern regions and a total lack of rain from mid-May to mid-June strongly reduced the production potential in the northern two-thirds of the country.

The EC is currently expecting French soft wheat production to be 35.48 mln tonnes, up 5.1pc from 33.67 mln tonnes last harvest, off a slightly increased area of 4.77 mln ha. As of late last week, 78pc of the French soft wheat crop was rated good to very good, down from 80pc a week earlier but much higher than the 63pc rating at the same time last year. The wheat harvest advanced by 24 percentage points week on week to 83pc complete as of July 24, well behind last year’s pace of 94pc but still ahead of the five-year average of 75pc.

With the winter barley harvest now complete, the final FranceAgriMer rating was 80pc good to very good, significantly higher than the 62pc rating for the same category a year earlier. The spring barley conditions were stable at 73pc good to very good, compared with the 48pc recorded in the same week in 2022.

The hot, dry summer has accelerated spring barley harvest activities significantly, advancing 22 percentage points across the week to July 24 to be 91pc complete compared to the five-year average of 65pc.

This season’s French rapeseed production is currently forecast at 4.63 mln tonnes, up 2.6pc from 4.51 mln tonnes in 2022 and the highest since 2018. The estimate is based on an expected yield of 3.44t/ha, down from 3.68t/ha last year, and an estimated planted area of 1.35 mln ha, up from 1.23 mln ha in 2022.

The dry spring and summer and warmer than average temperature over the last eight weeks has also stressed crops through most of Germany, the EU’s second-biggest grain producer, leading to a 3.2pc reduction in the total cereal output forecast to 42.16 mln tonnes. The soft wheat crop accounts for over 51pc of that estimate at 21.64 mln tonnes, itself down 3.4pc compared to last year. The planted area of 2.88 mln ha is down 2.3pc compared to the 2022 harvest, and the forecast yield is 1.1pc lower at 7.53t/ha.

German barley production is projected to be down 4.2pc to 10.75 mln tonnes this season, primarily due to a sharp reduction in the average yield from 7.08t/ha to 6.71t/ha. The planted area actually rose slightly year on year to 1.6 mln ha. The nation’s rapeseed crop has suffered badly under the unseasonal conditions, with the projected yield down 9.3 percent year on year to 3.61t/ha. And despite a sharp increase in the planted area to 1.17 mln ha, the harvest is still expected to be lower than in 2022 at 4.21 mln tonnes.

While the EU’s grain-export facilities will be kept busy shipping the increased output from its member states this season, the EU’s agriculture commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski stated last week that it is ready to export almost all of Ukraine’s agriculture goods via “solidarity lanes” following Russia’s withdrawal from the UN-backed Black Sea grain corridor. Wojciechowski said 60pc of Ukraine’s exports were shipped via solidarity lanes while the UN-backed grain deal was in operation, and 40pc went via the Black Sea.

The commissioner added that the EU was looking at several initiatives from member states to develop a joint plan to cover the additional transport costs for exporting Ukraine’s agricultural goods. While expanding grain transit through the EU is sensitive for Ukraine’s neighbours, where local farmers have come under financial pressure from increased Ukrainian imports, the commission felt confident a solution could be found that addresses the concerns of its members and keeps Ukraine’s surplus grain moving into the international market.

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