Argentina: Barley seeding slowed by rains but forecast for crop of 4.25 mln tonnes remains attainable
Over the past two weeks, crop 2023 seeding has been slowed by persistent rains across southern Buenos Aires province, causing delays in the planting of barley, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.
Although the planting window remains open throughout July, after July 15th there is increasing risk of negative yield impacts. Most existing malting barley varieties are suitable for seeding into later July, with Andreia the most adaptable to later seeding, while Overture and Montoya may be a bit more risky towards the end of July.
A break in the rain is forecast for this week which, if realized, would assist in the advance of seeding. Of course, for barley already seeded the recent moisture is beneficial, and should the full crop be planted over the next two weeks, then RMI Analytics’ crop 2023 forecast remains fully attainable at 4.25 mln tonnes.
Farmers are busy planting barley and wheat with a continued disinterest in forward selling of any barley (malting or feed) and the same is true for other crops, including corn. With farmer selling non-existent, it indicates no cash flow issues exist for farmers at this stage and there is little reason for increased farmer selling until seeding is fully completed and crop emergence takes place.
A new government is set to assume control in December 2023, raising the possibility for a further peso devaluation.
With a lack of buying interest and no liquidity from farmers, the barley market is very quiet and, as a result, prices are slightly softer. Traders remain concerned about malting barley export demand as China expectedly returns to Australia.
The speculated currency devaluation has led to a suggestion farmers should not sell grains until March-April 2024 (selling USD denominated grains after devaluation = more pesos). Crop 2022 is almost finished but small demand inquiries persist.
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