Australia: USDA raises projection for Australia barley exports in 2023-24
The US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Services (USDA FAS) has revised down its projection for Australian 2023-24 wheat exports, while raising slightly its forecast for barley exports.
The USDA FAS has revised Australian projected wheat exports for the 2023-24 marketing year (October-September) down by 2 mln tonnes from its previous estimate in April to 21 mln tonnes. This was partially driven by lower projected beginning stocks at 3.84 mln tonnes compared with 4.35 mln tonnes expected previously, following higher estimates for the country's 2022-23 wheat exports at 31 mln tonnes, up by 1 mln tonnes from April's projection.
The USDA FAS maintained its projection for Australia's 2023-24 wheat production at 29 mln tonnes, in line with the official USDA forecast. This is 10pc higher than the previous 10-year average owing to large harvested areas — at 12.8mn hectares (ha) — and a good start to the planting season owing to strong soil moisture levels, but this is 10.7 mln tonnes below the current year's output.
Wheat is likely to have taken preference over canola in planted acreages owing to price competitiveness compared with canola, a competing winter crop, the USDA FAS said.
In contrast, the USDA FAS has revised its forecast for Australia's barley exports up by 500,000t to 5.5 mln tonnes in the 2023-24 marketing year (November-October) on uncertain Ukrainian export logistics and the expected reinstatement of trade flows with China. That said, this still represents a 2 mln tonnes year-on-year reduction owing to the projected drop in overall barley production to 10 mln tonnes from 14.14 mln tonnes in 2022-23.
Decreased barley planted areas — as farmers reintroduced fallow areas into rotation, preferring to plant wheat in available crop land — are projected to result in the 2023-24 harvested acreages dropping to 3.8mn ha from 4.13mn ha in 2022-23, according to the USDA FAS.
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