Argentina: Barley crop forecast stays at 4.25 mln tonnes
Further moisture relief across Buenos Aires and Santa Fe provinces has been reported, however, further west (Cordoba and La Pampa) missed most of this heavy rain which leaves these areas in need of precipitation, RMI Analytics reported earlier in June.
On the basis of the rains received in major barley areas, RMI Analytics’ barley crop forecast for Argentina stays at 4.25 mln tonnes. The competition for planted area faced by barley in comparison with wheat is fierce but varies within sub-regions. For example, farmers in south-eastern Buenos Aires province appear to favour barley.
The planting window will remain open until the end of June and despite farmers’ ability to seed at a rapid pace, the crop will be planted on-time at best but most likely a bit delayed in the end. Still, conditions at the moment are much improved, and this provides a more positive view to the crop prospects. A crop of 4.2-4.4 mln tonnes remains realistic as long as barley-planted area achieves 1.05-1.1 mln ha. In addition, the malting barley proportion of the crop may improve, due to the drop in nitrogen fertilizer prices which supports normal applications, the analysts said.
There is very limited trade activity in the market, as farmers are busy harvesting corn and soybeans, while beginning to plant wheat (and hopefully soon barley). Despite this lack of export demand, barley prices are down slightly, as traders want to avoid ‘buying too high’. Farmer price expectations are currently USD15-20/tonne higher than currently quoted values, which makes liquidity a continuing problem in the upcoming months (and can still influence barley planted area versus wheat).
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