Australia: Barley crop forecast is down due to expected El Nino impact
Rain has been received across most of Australia’s key barley regions, and this improves early crop development, RMI Analytics said in their early June report.
Many regions require additional in-season rain and there is a risk recently expressed in the ABARES report where the long-term forecast for very dry conditions remains during the growing season, driven from the El Nino weather pattern.
RMI Analysts’ crop 2023 estimate at 10.18 mln tonnes is down 0.18 mln from the previous journal at the end of May, on the possibility of the El Nino weather impact lowering crop yields.
Planting is mostly wrapped up, with the remaining unplanted areas held back only by severe dryness, predominantly in northwestern New South Wales and southern Queensland region where the domestic feed market is concerned about dryness in this key region. There is already talk of vessel transfers from other Australia regions into the east-coast, as was routinely executed during the prolonged drought in 2017-19.
Australian barley prices are up slightly, mostly due to European prices jumping higher and despite the fact that the local crop looks good. A recent global barley tender was awarded to Australia, confirming the competitiveness of the region and its sizeable carryover. China’s review of the anti-dumping duties on Australian barley exports is said to be nearly complete, according to recent meetings between the nations. The review ‘was going in the right direction’, according to Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell.
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