World: Barley outlook for 2023/23 is for lower production, trade, ending stocks, USDA says

The global barley outlook for 2023/24 is for lower production, trade, and ending stocks, USDA said in its May report.

Production is projected to decline to 147.37 mln tonnes from 151.987 mln in 2022/23 as smaller crops primarily in Australia, Russia, and Algeria more than offset increases in the European Union, India, and Turkey.

Consumption for feed decreases while FSI (food, seed, and industrial) use is marginally up from 2022/23 levels.

Global trade is down (at 27.171 mln vs. 29.801 in 2022/23), primarily due to a decline in exportable supplies from Australia.

China barley imports are forecast to fall to 7 mln tonnes from the revised 2022/23 estimate of 8 mln.

European Union barley export is forecast up 900,000 tons to 6.9 million on higher production.

Australia barley is down 2.5 million tons to 5.5 million on a smaller crop. Australia barley has seen
strong import demand from East Asia and the Middle East in recent years as an affordable feed grain, but ample global supplies of corn and tighter production will likely raise prices, reducing export demand in 2023/24.

With global production shrinking by a larger amount than consumption, global ending stocks are projected to tighten to the lowest level since 1983/84.