Argentina: Barley production forecast lowered as harvest provides greater clarity on yields

RMI Analytics have lowered their forecast for Argentina’s barley production to 4 mln tonnes as harvest results provide greater clarity on actual, lower yields.

There have been delays in harvest due to rains, but the forecast is favourable in the week ahead and will help advance harvest.

In terms of quality, there is a wide range of proteins, from lows of 9% to highs of 13%+. The link between yields and protein is very strong, in areas where yields are near normal proteins are low while in drought impacted regions the proteins are trending higher (very high in some cases). Also, the late rains in some areas led to higher proteins as available nitrogen went directly to the grains.

On a positive note, the sizing of barley is better than expected. Overall, there is variable quality to manage through this crop cycle, the analysts said.

Argentina barley prices are down slightly on a FOB basis, as the trade is not an aggressive seller while farmers are selling only small parcels of barley.

Generally, farmers are preoccupied with managing through harvest. The smaller crop has added to the reluctance for farmer selling, with much less sold in crop 2023 as compared to the same time last year.