Canada & USA: Barley crops forecast at 9.74 mln tonnes for Canada, 3.77 mln for the US
The barley crop situation is unchanged in Canada and the US, at 9.74 mln tonnes and 3.77 mln, respectively, with domestic maltsters generally covered following the major problems of last year, RMI Analytics reported in December.
The US barley contracting programs helped accelerate the recovery for maltsters, while in Canada the strong feed market added a higher degree of complexity but most domestic maltsters acted quickly to make selections during harvest and it appears farmer selling has been enough to allow maltsters and exporters to gain the coverage required.
Export pace for Canada barley remains steady at 1.05 mln tonnes through mid-November but is slightly behind the 1.2 mln tonnes a year ago. However, this pace should still meet the 3.4 mln tonnes forecast for the campaign, the analysts said.
Barley prices are down since November in a similar fashion to other origins. Canada is relatively competitive to French malting barley but not as competitive for feed or FAQ barley into export markets (e.g. China).
The feed complex has levelled off but at still very high prices. Imported US corn is entering Alberta in a major way, with expectations corn is on rations for the medium to long term. Truck freight is a major constraint, adding to costs pressure, with reduced capacity available.
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