Canada: Barley crop 2022-23 estimated at 9.43 mln tonnes

For 2022-23, Canadian barley production was estimated by Statistics Canada (STC) at 9.43 million tonnes (Mt), 35% and 6%, respectively, higher than last year’s record low and the pre-2021 five-year average, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its November report.

The recovery in production was mainly due to near-normal yield performance which rebounded from last year's near-record low. Production is distributed as follows: 87% in Alberta, 38% in Saskatchewan, 7% in Manitoba, and 4% in all other provinces.

The increase in production more than offset the historically low carry-in stocks and smaller imports; as a result, supply is expected to increase by 27% ear-on-year to nearly 10 Mt, but still remain 6% below the pre-2021 five-year average.

Domestic use (including industrial and feed use) and exports are expected to expand from 2021-22.

Carry-out stocks are projected to rise to 0.55 Mt, which is still a tight level.

The average price is predicted at C$400/tonne (t), down from the record level of 2021-22, due to expectations for a recovery in domestic feed grain supply from last year’s drought. However, it will
still remain historically high, largely underpinned by strong corn prices and robust demand.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the 2022-23 global barley situation includes larger production, stronger feed demand, smaller trade volumes and lower ending stocks. Stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be at a record low.