UK: Barley balance remains tight in 2022/23 - AHDB

AHDB published on November 22 the first official UK supply and demand estimates for wheat, barley, oats and maize for the 2022/23 season.

Despite decade low carry-in barley stocks, a rise in production has led to a 1% increase in available supplies this season at 8.226 mln tonnes. Barley production is provisionally estimated at 7.190 mln tonnes, up 3% on the year, driven by higher-than-average yields outweighing a drop in planted area.

In terms of demand, total domestic usage is expected to fall by 3% on the year to 6.138 mln tonnes. This is driven by a drop in animal feed demand outweighing a rise in usage by the brewing malting and distilling sectors (BMD). Despite the recession, BMD demand is expected to remain robust this season with new distilling capacity online in Scotland.

At the start of last season barley was being included heavily in rations, which was a lag from 2020/21 when there was ample supply. As there was a large wheat crop last season, wheat featured more heavily in rations from Oct-Dec ‘21 at the expense of barley. With plentiful supply of wheat in 2022/23, this trend is expected to continue.

With the rise in supply, outweighing a fall in demand, the barley balance has grown this season to 2.088 mln tonnes, 16% up year on year. However, this remains lower than the previous five-year average and is the third lowest in a decade, AHDB said.