Australia: Barley crop forecast at 12.2 mln tonnes to be the fourth largest crop on record
Australia is set for a third consecutive bumper grain crop in MY 2022/23. After another strong start to the planting season followed up by great rainfalls, particularly in the eastern states of Australia, there is ample moisture to carry the wheat and barley crops through the grain fill stage. With above-average rainfalls forecast over the coming months, the key risk would be rainfall at harvest causing grain quality downgrades, Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) said in its Grain and Feed Update report published on October 21.
Barley production is forecast at 12.2 mln tonnes, down from the previous year’s 13.9 mln tonne record production. If this forecast is achieved, it would be the fourth largest crops on record, the experts said.
The year-on-year reduction in production is in part due to a forecast decrease in area from 4.42 million hectares to 4.20 million hectares. This is due to the particularly high canola and very strong wheat prices in the lead up to planting resulting in growers substituting some of their typical barley planting area mainly to canola and in smaller part to wheat. Growers had difficulty sourcing canola seed at planting and had it been more available there would have been an even lower barley planted area.
Barley exports are forecast at 6.5 mln tonnes for MY 2022/23 which would be the fourth largest on record.
Australia’s ending stocks of barley are forecast to decline slightly to around 2.4 mln tonnes in MY 2022/23.
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