21 October, 2022

North America: Canada barley production forecast unchanged at 9.66 mln tonnes

Canada barley production forecast is unchanged at 9.66 mln tonnes with an overall average crop result, ending stocks remain tight as the empty pipeline needs replenishment, RMI Analytics said in their late October report.

Dry conditions in western Canada and southern US wheat regions should be monitored as crop 2023 would start very dry if more moisture is not received. The main US barley regions have better moisture conditions.

Canada’s barley export forecast currently at 3 mln tonnes may move slightly higher as Argentina crop shrinks, the analysts said.

Canada’s feed barley prices continue to move higher, presently at CAD455/tonne delivered Lethbridge as farmer selling remains mostly absent and feed wheat and oats are being fed due to lack of barley.

For export markets, RMI’s estimates are slightly up as concerns in Argentina could bring further demand to Canada (China).

Imported US corn could start flowing as cattle feeders are concerned about physical supply (more so than price).

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