World: Beer output and malt demand expected to continue to grow
Beer output and malt demand are expected to continue their rise, in spite of all present problems; most of all in Asia, Latin America and Africa. The sectors craft, premium and pure malt beer will gain larger market shares, H. M. Gauger GmbH said in their October report.
Malt supplies are still restricted by war in Eastern Europe, do recover after better crops in North America and a surprising flow of Chinese shipments in spite of their barley supply problems; their exports in January-August are estimated at 250,000 tonnes. Maltsters in the export and import countries work with their maximum capacities. But initially a big short remains, it is most visible in the EU, Africa and Southeast Asia.
For 2023 a few hundred thousand tonne remain to be bought. Brewers continue to negotiate long-term agreements, also reserve malting capacities without fixing malting margins. The large brewer groups push their suppliers to increase malting capacities or plan to invest themselves in new installations.
Preferred locations of new industries are outside Europe, in Latin America, where large capacities in Brazil and Mexico are already under construction, Southeast Asia and Australia. Some new constructions take place in the EU as well, in Finland, Austria and Italy, but they will replace older inefficient factories.
Conclusion: Unless the worst economic and political fears become reality, malt is and will be a premium item for some years to come.
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