World: Total world grain production estimated higher in IGC’s September report

On September 22, the IGC estimated the world grain production higher, at 2.256 bln tonnes, based on a larger wheat crop of 792 mln tonnes, but a smaller corn crop of 1.168 bln tonnes, H. M. Gauger GmbH said in its October report.

Market fundamentals have not changed much in September. Wheat crops are abundant in Russia, corn crops poor in the U.S. and the EU. Brazil has harvested record crops of corn and soybeans. Australia forecasts very large crops of wheat and barley again.

Markets are reacting to the political situation in the world, acceleration of the Ukrainian war by Russian proclaimed border changes, the economic war between Russia and the EU and the expected closure of Ukrainian Black See grain shipments in November.

In July-September, Ukraine exported by sea and land 7.8 vs. 13.6 mln tonnes of all grains, but only 0.67 vs. 3.6 mln tonnes of barley year-on-year.

World markets are tight, particularly in wheat, and one cannot exclude a full stop of Black Sea shipments, incl. further sanctions affecting also Russian exports.