Australia: Barley crop forecast at 12.6 mln tonnes with 13 mln still a realistic possibility

Heavy rains continue to fall on Australia’s east coast leaving part of the region very wet and even leading to flooding in New South Wales. So far, the presence of disease is minimal for barley (however wheat showing signs of leaf rust) aided by the cooler temperatures, RMI Analytics said in their latest report earlier this month.

The forecast for the rest of the month is clear, and the sunshine would be welcome as the crop starts to mature.

Low protein is a likely outcome across the east coast but otherwise, current varieties are performing well under wet conditions.

By comparison, Western Australia, South Australia, and Victoria remain nearly perfect with a mix of ample moisture and moderate temperatures. On the potential of these regions RMI Analytics’ barley estimate increases to 12.6 mln tonnes with 13 mln still a realistic possibility.

Australian barley prices are sideways, with some firmness on feed barley. The weaker AUD keeps farmer pricing supported in AUD terms, but selling remains very low. The New South Wales crop situation will shift barley flows, with feed barley moving to Queensland and malting barley going north to Brisbane.

Feed barley trade to the Philippines is reported (50 thousand tonnes) for January, February, and March 2023 deliveries.

Export shipments remain active but are being impacted by persistent rain on the east-coast.

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