Argentina: Dry conditions make previously forecast 5.4-5.5 mln tonnes barley crop unattainable

Dry conditions are an increasing concern across Buenos Aires Province, while the drought in the north remains unabated. As a result, Argenina’s barley crop forecast is reduced to 5.2 mln tonnes with prospects for a 5.4-5.5 mln tonnes crop becomes unattainable and 5 mln tonnes seem to be the direction, RMI Analytics said in their early October report.

Argentina’s wheat is in worse condition, and 9 mln tonnes of wheat export licences are in place already with a crop estimate of 15-16 mln tonnes (at best).

This tightening of stocks/use raises concerns about having sufficient supply for domestic needs, the analysts said.

The Argentina barley price direction is sharply higher as crop conditions drop and farmers are absent from the market, despite FAS prices to growers shooting higher.

In September, farmers sold 13 mln tonnes of soybeans under the government’s special exchange rate program, reducing the need for farmer selling from a cash flow perspective.

A 30 thousand tonnes tender for malting barley surfaced during the first week of October (India) with Argentina and France expected origins, reminding that demand is present.