World: Global barley production forecast slightly up at 150.2 mln tonnes
A good barley crop result from the northern hemisphere raises the global barley production forecast slightly to 150.2 mln tonnes and creates, as a result, a general comfort level regarding the availability of sufficient global quality malting barley, RMI Analytics said in their early October report.
As a look back, the analysts’ production estimate attained a seasonal low at 146 mln tonnes during the summer 2022. From this low point, a considerable recovery has occurred.
For the major barley producing countries/region, the year-over-year change is now a negligible 0.1 mln tonnes due to: a slight improvement in European production across several countries, a huge Russian crop, and another big result in Australia. These improvements offset the production lost in Ukraine (from 10 mln tonnes in 2021 to 6 mln tonnes today) and a lower Argentina crop estimate. In addition to an increased barley supply, the favourable harvest conditions in Europe and North America created an improved selection potential for malting barley.
The last four global barley crops are above the 10-year production average and indicate that barley is currently well-positioned with farmers. A risk is malting premiums are shrinking due to higher feed price levels.
The bottom line is sufficient malting barley supply is now in place for the needs of 2023.
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