09 February, 2005

World barley crop estimates of IGC published on January 27, 2005:
World crop 2004 barley 150 million tonnes versus 140 million tonnes in 2003;
World crop 2004 all grains 1,625 million tonnes compared to 1,468 million tonnes in 2003.
End of grain year stocks will be rebuilt from 262 to 309 million tonnes, according to IGC. All markets are sharply lower than a year ago. As in many past years, barley (US$ 130 FOB EU/Black Sea) obtains a high premium over maize (3 YC US$ 92-93 FOB Gulf). Crops in the Southern Hemisphere turned out excellent except for Australia. Winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere has been mostly beneficial for winter plantings. At this time it looks like another big crop, however, nothing is sure until “the crop is in the barn”.

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