Europe: In 2005-2006 barley production in the EU-25 is expected to decrease by 9% to 56 million tonnes due to a return of yields from 2004-2005’s record high to a more normal level and decreased area seeded to barley, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reported on January 14. Barley production in the FSU (Former Soviet Union) and Eastern Europe is forecast to drop slightly, from 37.2 million tonnes in 2004-2005 to 35.5 million tonnes. Lower production in Europe is expected to more than offset higher carry-in stocks of 13.2 million tonnes for 2005-2006 versus 8.3 million tonnes for 2004-2005. As a result, barley supplies in Europe are forecast to decrease. Demand in Europe is expected to remain at levels close to 2004-2005. In world feed barley market, the EU-25 and, to a lesser degree, the Black Sea countries are expected to face intensive competition in the Middle East and North African markets and exports from the EU are forecast to decrease. In the malting barley market, the EU’s export share is expected to drop significantly, as the size and quality of the malting barley crop in Australia and Canada return to more normal levels. EU export subsidies for barley are expected to play a more important role for EU to compete with other exporters, especially Ukraine and Russia.
EU barley prices are expected to rise to US$135/t in 2005-2006 from US$130/t estimated for 2004-2005, as decreased production in both the EU-25 and the Black Sea countries puts less pressure on prices in Europe.
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