07 July, 2022

Canada: Barley crop estimate raised to 9.8 mln tonnes

Moisture conditions are improving in Canada, particularly in parts of Alberta and western Saskatchewan, to assist in the recovery from the 2021 drought, RMI Analytics said in their early July report.

Temperatures have been average to slightly below average, supporting good crop development, the analysts said.

The RMI production estimate for Canadian barley is raised to 9.8 mln tonnes (up from 9.3 mln). The USDA reported the lowest barley stocks in ten years due to the 2021 drought impacts, confirming an empty barley pipeline.

Canadian barley prices are moving lower as the feed complex drops, influenced in part by lower US corn futures. Malting barley contracting should benefit as a result, but this lower price environment is likely to renew export buying interest from China but so far this demand seems mostly absent. The RMI analysts’ view remains that China needs to ship from Canada to offset lost Ukraine barley origin.

Feed barley prices in Lethbridge have dropped CAD35/tonnes. US imported corn is down CAD70/tonne on lower futures. StatsCan may increase barley planted and add further bearishness.

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