World: Barley crop conditions improve dramatically after a month of weather concerns

World barley crop conditions improved dramatically after a month of concerning weather impact. RMI Analytics’ global crop 2022 estimate is adjusted slightly upward at 146.7 mln tonnes, with an adjustment to Ukraine (7.3 mln tonnes), the analysts said in their latest report earlier in June.

For France’s spring barley, there is negative impact to yield due to dryness and heat but the recent rains have stabilized the crop for the time being.

In North America a planting window has opened for wheat and barley seeding to rapidly advance while much needed rainfall is falling across Canada and the northern USA.

Despite the improved conditions, the end result remains a very tight supply situation, the analysts said.

In the Southern Hemisphere, crop 2022 conditions are generally good in Argentina and Australia, where planting in both regions is underway. The only concern of note is found on the Australian east-coast (New South Wales and southern Queensland) where extreme wet conditions may prevent sowing of crops.

A certain level of optimism has entered the market as European harvest comes onto the horizon. The rains in France helped secure a reasonable 2-row crop outcome while the French 6-row remains in very good shape. Nothing is certain until harvest is complete but prospects are improved.

The Black Sea situation remains tenuous despite Putin’s announcement regarding the allowing of grain exports from Ukraine. The physical ability to execute any such shipments remains highly questionable, and Russian missiles struck Kiev and port cities shortly after Putin’s announcement.

Considerable grain stocks still exist and a new crop cycle is set to come. Black Sea exports could enter world markets at some stage, adding a bearish scenario to markets that have been exclusively bullish for months. World barley prices are lower at the moment, the analysts reported.