Argentina: Barley crop estimate remains at 5.2 mln tonnes

The completion of barley harvest went quite well in Argentina where the weather cooperated for the harvest of an overall good result in terms of quality and yield; besides some sizing and test weight concerns in very isolated areas, the crop is a good outcome, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

The nation’s crop estimate remains at 5.2 mln tonnes – in line with expectations. This good outcome is very important in the face of continued Chinese demand plus new demand coming from elsewhere (e.g. Europe and North America). Export activity is strong and will continue in the coming months.

Farmers have already sold nearly 2/3 of the barley crop which has enabled a strong sales book to be established. Further sales by the farmers may be slightly more difficult at current price levels, due to higher wheat prices over the past two weeks. Although farmers hold a favourable attitude towards barley (feed in particular), this is not a guarantee of planted area in 2022. Wheat is expected to be a strong competitor. The impact of Covid is being felt on the supply chain as terminals and trucking firms have a difficult time in staffing operations due to positive test and quarantines.

Argentina barley prices have moved higher driven by continued export demand from multiple destinations (e.g. China, Europe, and North America). Feed barley are up more than malting.

The estimate for China exports is at 1.8-2 mln tonnes which immediately tightens the South American barley balance.

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