10 December, 2021

World: Barley trade forecast increased but production further down in USDA’s December report

World barley trade in 2021/22 is forecast to reach 34.067 mln tonnes, up from the November forecast of 33.592 mln tonnes but still below the 2020/21 trade forecast at 36.733 mln tonnes, USDA said in its December report.

Export forecast is up for Australia (8.5 mln tonnes vs 8 mln in the November report and 8.007 mln tonnes in 2020/21) and down for Canada (1.5 mln tonnes vs. 1.6 and 3.52 mln tonnes, respectively).

China’s and Saudi Arabia’s barley imports forecasts are both unchanged in USDA’s December report (at 10.1 and 6.5 mln tonnes, respectively).

The global barley production forecast is down this month: at 145.511 mln tonnes versus 146.243 mln tonnes in the November report and 159.385 mln tonnes in 2020/21. Output forecast is up for Australia (13 mln tonnes vs 12 mln tonnes in last month’s report and 13.1 mln tonnes in 2020/21) and down for the EU (52.75 mln vs. 53.9 and 54.234 mln tonnes), Canada (6.948 mln tonnes vs. 7.1 and 10.741 mln tonnes), and Iran (2.7 mln vs. 3.1 mln and 3.6 mln tonnes, respectively).

Global barley consumption forecast has been reduced to 149.751 mln tonnes this month (150.315 mln tonnes in the November report, 160.495 mln tonnes in 2020/21) and ending stocks are seen at 16.931 mln tonnes versus 16.9 and 21.171 mln tonnes, respectively.

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