Canada: 2021-22 barley supply at 8 mln tonnes sharply down from 2020-21

For 2021-22, Canadian barley supply is projected at 8.00 million tonnes, down sharply from 2020-21 and reaching a record low, primarily due to production issues in Canada’s Prairie provinces, as well as record low carry-in stocks, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its November report.

To reflect the tight supply, demand for both domestic feed consumption and exports will be sharply lower than last year. Canadian Grain Commission (CGC)’s weekly statistics show that, as
of November 1st, 2021, Canadian barley grain exports are close to 1.00 mln tonnes, 23% higher than the same period last year when barley grain exports had been active and exports for the entire crop year reached 3.80 mln tonnes. The analysts expect the exporting pace will slow down for the rest of the year.

Carry-out stocks are expected to be at a record low level. The 2021-22 barley carry-out stocks are projected at 300 thousand tonnes, which is much lower than the average monthly demand in the past five years. This level of ending stocks would meet less than one month of domestic use.

The average price of feed barley for 2021-22 is projected at a new record of $400/t, up sharply from the previous record set in 2020-21. Prices are supported by tight carry-in stocks, significant crop production problems due to drought, robust demand and stronger prices of other grains. Compared to the October forecast, the November forecast includes increased exports, decreased
domestic feed use and an increase in the average price.

The 2021-22 barley production estimates for the EU, Russia and Ukraine were lowered by the USDA in its November report, relative to October estimates. Worldwide, the 2021-22 barley situation includes lower production, demand, ending stocks and stocks-to-use ratio, compared to 2020-21.

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