SABMiller is on the prowl once more, but again its target may get away. The brewer has confirmed its interest in Molson, the Canadian brewer planning to merge with America’s Coors. SABMiller says it would be interested in buying Molson if that company’s shareholders block the tie-up with Coors. The talk has helped send Molson’s stock above the implied deal price with Coors - forcing the two to sweeten the terms of the deal on Thursday.
This is the third time in recent months that SABMiller has looked at expansion. Last summer Anheuser-Busch, maker of Budweiser, won a bidding war with SABMiller for China’s Harbin Brewery group. And at the end of the year Scotland on Sunday revealed that the company had considered making a bid for Scottish & Newcastle - but speculation which pushed up the share price of the Edinburgh brewer prevented the deal from happening.
SABMiller’s problem is that it has been bumped down into third place in the beer rankings by the merger of Ambev and Interbrew - also last year - which created the current number one, Inbev (Anheuser is number two). In the intensely competitive beer market, that is an uncomfortable position.
Hence the interest in Molson. But the history with Harbin and S&N suggests SAB Miller may be unwilling to pay the high price it needs to win the Canadian company. But its appetite for a takeover would be left unsatisfied. That in turn could leave it again looking to swallow another rival. With family-held Heineken out of the equation, it is likely its eyes will again fall on S&N. If the Scottish brewer’s share price starts to slide, expect SABMiller to take another, harder, look.
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