Australia: Barley production forecast to fall by 21%
Australias winter crop prospects in 202122 are forecast to be well above average nationally, but with regional variation, ABARES said in their June report.
The opening to the winter crop season was promising in many large producing regions with favourable late summer and autumn rainfall in most cropping regions in Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland. The favourable seasonal conditions in these regions, and high world prices, are expected to drive area planted to winter crops nationally to a record high. Crop prospects in most cropping regions in these states, especially those in New South Wales, are favourable despite the current mouse plague, given the well above average levels of soil moisture at the beginning of winter and a generally favourable winter rainfall outlook. In contrast, planting conditions in most cropping regions in Victoria and South Australia were unfavourable during autumn. Most crops in these two states will be reliant on winter rainfall for crop establishment and development and vulnerable to below average winter rainfall.
Winter crop production is forecast to be 46.8 million tonnes in 202122, 15% below the near record high production last year but 13% above the 10-year average to 202021. Mixed yield performance is expected to reduce production despite the area sown to winter crops being forecast to reach a record high of 23.2 million hectares, up 2% from last year.
Crop yields in New South Wales and Western Australia, the two states with the largest forecast planted area, are expected to be above average. Yields in New South Wales are forecast to be lower than the record highs achieved last season but well above the 10-year average to 202021. In Western Australia, crop yields are forecast to be comparable to last season at around 9% above the 10-year average to 202021. Yield performance in other states is expected to be patchy, in line with regional variations in seasonal conditions, with below average yields expected in some important growing regions in Victoria and South Australia.
For the major winter crops in 202122, area planted to wheat is forecast to increase by 1% to around 13.1 million hectares. Wheat production is forecast to fall by 17% but still be 15% above the 10-year average to 202021. Area planted to barley is forecast to fall by 4% to around 4.2 million hectares.
Barley production is forecast to fall by 21% to 10.4 million tonnes but still be 7% above the 10-year average to 202021.
Area planted to canola is forecast to increase by 25% to almost 3 million hectares, the third highest on record. Area planted to canola is expected to be boosted by favourable world prices and excellent planting conditions in Western Australia and New South Wales. Canola production is forecast to increase by 4% to 4.2 million tonnes, 22% above the 10-year average to 202021.