World: February grain markets dominated by Chinese corn and soybean purchases
February markets were dominated by large Chinese corn and soybean purchases, by Russian export quotas and taxes, by constantly changing weather news of drought, rain and frost, H. M. Gauger GmbH said in their March report.
There was no direct connection with the corona pandemic, but food price inflation in a number of countries did affect markets. The recovery from the pandemic, e.g. in China, led to a larger grain and vegetable oil demand, and caused an extremely tight container and bulk freight situation.
In South America slow harvest and strikes delayed export shipments and moved commitments from Mercosur to the USA.
Futures and physical prices remained firm during the month.
On the futures exchanges prices shot up from a year ago: (all prices in US$ per metric tonne): CBT wheat plus US$40, Matif wheat plus 55, CBT corn plus 75, CBT soybeans plus 195.
In the U.S., the world’s central market, there is an apprehension of insufficient corn and soybean supplies before the arrival of the new crop.
The USDA annual Agri-Forum forecast 2021 carry-over stocks of 38 mln tonnes of corn and 3.25 mln tonnes of beans, but other analysts put the corn c/o at only 30 mln tonnes, less than 8% of the annual demand. Both USDA and private analysis predict a sharp increase of corn and bean acres for the new crop. But demand will still outstrip production again in the coming campaign.
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