15 June, 2020

World: 2020/21 world barley trade forecast slightly lower in USDA’s June report

World barley trade forecast for 2020/21 is slightly lower in USDA’s June forecast, at 25.288 mln tonnes vs 25.598 mln last month. Export forecast is down for Australia (-300 thousand tones to 4.2 mln on anti-dumping duties introduced in China). Import forecast is down for China (-1 mln tonnes due to trade tensions with Australia) and up for Saudi Arabia (+20 thousand tonnes to 7 mln thanks to greater availability in the world market) and Thailand (+250 thousand tonnes to 700 thousand on back-year trade trends).

For 2019/20, global barley trade is forecast at 25.422 mln tonnes with export forecast down for Australia (-800 thousand tonnes to 3.2 mln – again, because of the anti-dumping duties introduced in China) and up for the EU (+700 thousand tonnes to 7 mln tonnes). China is expected to import 300 thousand tonnes less (5.5 mln in total) due to the imposed duties on Australian barley).

World barley production 2020/21 is seen in this month’s report at 155.259 mln tonnes vs. 154.183 mln tonnes in the May report and 156.279 mln tonnes in 2019/20.

Barley consumption is forecast at 154.114 mln tonnes (152.724 mln tonnes in the May report, 152.307 mln in 2019/20) and ending stocks at 22.92 mln tonnes (23.507 and 21.775 mln tonnes, respectively).

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