12 August, 2019

World: Barley trade forecast reduced this month on smaller crop expectations in the EU and other countries

World barley trade is forecast to total 27.808 mln tonnes in 2019/20, down from 28.115 mln tonnes forecast last month, but still higher than 25.699 mln tonnes shipped in 2018/19, USDA said in their August report.

Exports forecast is up 300 thousand tonnes to 3 mln for Argentina and 200 thousand tonnes to 4.4 mln for Ukraine (both on larger crop expectations), and down 500 thousand tonnes to 5.5 mln for the EU, 300 thousand tonnes to 1.6 mln tonnes for Kazakhstan, 300 thousand tonnes to 4.7 mln for Russia (all on smaller crop forecasts). Import forecast is down for Saudi Arabia only (-500 thousand tonnes to 8.5 mln tonnes).

For 2018/19, barley exports forecasts remained unchanged, import forecasts are up for Iran (+200 thousand tonnes to 3.2 mln) and down for Saudi Arabia (-500 thousand tonnes to 4.5 mln).

Barley production is forecast this month to reach 152.288 mln tonnes in 2019/20 (vs. 151.865 mln tonnes in the July report and 139.535 mln tonnes in 2018/19).

Total consumption is forecast at 150.407 mln tonnes (148.959 mln and 141.263 mln tonnes, respectively), whereas ending stocks are seen at 19.571 mln tonnes (20.167 and 17.69 mln tonnes, respectively).

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