Canada: Barley supply decreases in 2018-19 due to low carry-in stocks

For 2018-19, total Canadian barley supply decreased to 9.674 mln tonnes due to sharply lower carry-in stocks, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its February report.

Total domestic use is forecast to increase on higher feed and industrial use to 6.074 mln tonnes.

Exports are forecast to remain strong, at 2.7 mln tonnes, although slightly lower than last year, due to strong international demand.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 28% to 0.9 million tonnes that will be a record low level.

The average price of feed barley at Lethbridge for the crop year is expected to be C$255/t, about 12% higher than last year, the analysts said.

Similar to feed barley, the quality of the malting barley crop is variable. The extensive summer heat increased the protein content of the crop and lowered the weight of the crop, depending on the date of maturity and area.

The Lethbridge spot feed barley prices to-date have been about 20% higher than last year and Prairie malt prices have been 15-25% higher than last year.

World barley stocks are historically low as nearly all of the world major producers and exporters had smaller crops and, in many cases, quality was also lower than normal. World prices for feed barley have been very strong compared to corn prices. Lower world supplies of malting barley, and especially quality malt, is also pushing these prices higher. In 2018-19, because of reduced supply of quality feed barley, relatively high prices of feed barley and the large amount of maize available worldwide, consuming countries will be looking for corn as the alternative to fodder.

For 2019-20, Canada’s barley-seeded area was increased from the January report because of low expected supply. Compared to 2018-19, it is forecast to increase by 10% due to high barley prices and low carry-in stocks.

Production is forecast to increase by 12% to 9.4 mln tonnes due to higher seeded area and yield.

Despite the historically low carry-in stocks, total supply is forecast to increase by 7% to 10.3 mln tonnes.

Total domestic use is forecast to increase by 4% to 6.316 mln tonnes due to slightly higher feed use in cattle and hog production.

Exports are forecast to increase slightly (to 2.75 mln tonnes) due to higher domestic supplies and a return to normal trade patterns.

With a higher supply, barley carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by almost 40% to 1.25 mln tonnes which is still below the previous five-year average.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to decrease by 12% from 2018-19 to C$225/t due to increased world supply.

The area seeded to barley in the US is forecast by the USDA to increase and total barley production in North America is expected to increase due to higher production, both in Canada and the US. However, due to the sharply lower carry-in stocks, total supply is forecast to increase only slightly. This implies that carry-out stocks will remain low and that prices will remain relatively strong, although lower than last year.

World barley production and supply are expected to increase slightly for 2019-20 as some of the world’s major producers, such as the EU and Australia, increase their barley production. Large corn carry-over stocks will provide pressure on coarse grain prices.