World: Barley trade forecast slightly down in this month’s report by USDA

USDA in its February report reduced its forecast for global barley trade in 2018/19 to 27.005 mln tonnes from 27.455 mln tonnes in the January report. In 2017/18, world barley trade is estimated to have totalled 26.512 mln tonnes.

The forecast for barley exports in 2018/19 is up for Argentina (+300 thousand tonnes to 3.1 mln on a larger crop) and is down for Australia (-400 thousand tonnes to 5 mln reflecting weaker demand from China) and Ukraine (-300 thousand tonnes to 4.2 mln due to a smaller crop).

Barley import forecast is down for China - to 1.2 mln tonnes to 8 mln reflecting the imports pace to-date and up for Saudi Arabia (+500 thousand tonnes to 8.5 mln tonnes) and Turkey (+200 thousand tonnes to 300 thousand in 2018/19).

World barley production forecast is slightly down – at 140.602 mln tonnes versus 140.724 mln forecast last month and 144.19 mln tonnes in 2017/18.

Total barley consumption this season is forecast at 142.197 mln tonnes vs. 142.581 mln tonnes last month and 147.73 mln in 2017/18. Ending stocks are seen at 17.914 mln tonnes vs. 17.429 and 19.509 mln tonnes, respectively.

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