Canada: Barley production expected up 6% in 2018-19

For 2018-19, Canadian barley production increased by 6% from 2017-18 to 8.4 million tonnes due to the higher harvested area, despite a lower yield, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their December report.

Production in Western Canada averaged 8.0 mln tonnes, of which 50% was in Alberta, 43% in Saskatchewan, 6% in Manitoba and 1% in BC. Production in Eastern Canada averaged 0.4 mln tonnes of which 41% was in Quebec, 27% in Ontario and 32% in the Maritimes.

Total supply decreased by 4% to 9.7 mln tonnes due to sharply lower carry-in stocks.

Total domestic use is forecast to increase on higher feed and industrial use.

Exports are forecast to decrease by 13% to 2.45 mln tonnes, due to lower total supply.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 20% to 1.0 mln tonnes or near record low levels.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price for the crop year is forecast to increase moderately from 2017-18.

Barley in Manitoba, and the early harvested crop in Alberta and Saskatchewan, is generally in good quality. Due to the late harvest, the availability of competing feed grain is expected to be above average, especially all wheat. Similar to feed barley, the quality of the malting barley is variable. The extensive summer heat increased the protein content of the crop and lowered the weight of the crop, depending on the date of maturity and area.

To-date for this crop year, the Lethbridge spot feed barley prices have been about 20% higher than last year and Prairie malt prices have been 10-15% higher than last year.

Lower supplies of quality feed barley and higher barley prices will mean the continued importation of US based corn and distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS) as the large commercial feedlots are very quality-conscious for their rations. The feedlots will bypass the poorer quality, low bushel weight feed grains.

World barley stocks are historically low as nearly all of the world major producers and exporters had smaller crops and, in many cases, quality was also lower than normal. World prices for feed barley have been very strong compared to FOB corn prices. To-date for this crop year, the average price for feed barley has been at a US$75/tonne (t) premium to the world average FOB corn price, the highest in the last 10 years. Lower world supplies of malting barley, and especially quality malt, is also pushing these prices higher. In 2018-19, because of reduced supply of quality feed barley, relatively high prices of feed barley and the large amount of maize available worldwide, consuming countries will be looking for corn as the alternative to fodder.

The average price of feed barley at Lethbridge for the crop year is expected to be C$255/t, about 12% higher than last year.

E-malt.com, the global information source for the brewing and malting industry professionals. The bi-weekly E-malt.com Newsletters feature latest industry news, statistics in graphs and tables, world barley and malt prices, and other relevant information. Click here to get full access to E-malt.com. If you are a Castle Malting client, you can get free access to E-malt.com website and publications. Contact us for more information at marketing@castlemalting.com .