The big riddle of the year is the Chinese demand for malting barley, analysts said. Demand figures range from 1.5 to 2.2 million tonnes. Customs-clearances in Chinese ports from July till October were a mere 135,000 tonnes. Port stocks are almost exhausted by now (100,000 tonnes?), most of the unsold barley is old crop Esterel barley from France with declining germinative energy. Total malting barley needs in China are estimated to be 3 million tonnes, the Chinese crop of viable malting barley is less than 1 million tonnes. Brewers have increased the proportion of adjuncts, but there is also a new increase of beer output after a short decline during the crisis of the SARS disease. The opinion in the trade is that Chinese buyers will come into the market in December or latest in January for substantial quantities. Purchases will have to come from Australia and Canada, as the EU is uncompetitive this year.

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