02 May, 2007

Canada: 2007-08 exports of malting and feed barley are forecast to increase by 7%

Barley production 2007-2008 is forecast by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to increase by 20% due to higher area and yields. Supply is expected to increase only slightly, as lower carry-in stocks offset much of the higher production.

Exports of malting and feed barley are forecast to increase by 7% to a normal level. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase by 6%. The average off-Board feed barley price (No. 1 CW I/S Lethbridge) is forecast to decrease by CA$5/t from 2006-07 to CA$160/t.

Statistics Canada's (STC) survey of seeding intentions for 2007 indicated that the total area seeded to grains and oilseeds (G&O) is estimated to increase by 2% from 2006. Summerfallow area is estimated to fall to a modern day record low. Areas seeded to canola, durum, barley, corn and oats are estimated to increase, but areas seeded to wheat ex-durum, rye, mixed grains, flaxseed and soybeans are expected to decrease. The actual seeded areas may differ from the intentions due to changes in the market outlook and expected prices, producer reaction to the STC report and soil moisture conditions at seeding time.

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