26 May, 2006

Canada: 2006-07 Pool Return Outlook on malting barley unchanged

The CWB released May 26 its Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2006-07 crop year. The Pool A feed barley PRO and the designated barley PRO are unchanged versus the April PRO. Wheat PROs are $2 to $10 per tonne higher versus the April PRO.

The stronger Canadian dollar is having a negative impact on malting barley returns, offsetting higher malting barley price expectations. The U.S. new crop malting barley supply situation is expected to be relatively tight given reduced planted area, which is positive for North American values. Returns in offshore markets are also expected to be slightly stronger.

The Pool A feed barley PRO is unchanged. Global feed grain fundamentals have strengthened since last month. This is especially true of U.S. corn, considering that new crop ending stocks are projected to be substantially tighter due to very strong domestic demand for ethanol production. However, the stronger Canadian has offset stronger price expectations.

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