Australia: Barley crop estimate slightly down as high yields in Western Australia and New South Wales are unlikely to repeat

Australia’s east coast has received further rainfall, setting up improved soil moisture conditions for barley crop’25, but less so in western Victoria and South Australia. RMI Analytics’ production estimate is down slightly (-0.2 mln tonnes) to 12.3 mln tonnes as a repeat in yields for Western Australia and New South Wales will be difficult to achieve.

For crop’25, ending stocks are down -0.2 mln tonnes due to lower production and ongoing strong exports, continuing the major volumes of the past 2 years.

Calendar 2024 barley exports totalled 6.4 mln tonnes and were 75.2% destined to China (64% of the Chinese volumes were feed or germinating feed). Shipments slowed during Q3 but rebounded in Q4, while at the same time Saudi appeared with feed demand. The price impact has been a firming of values, as demand is present but farmer selling is lower. In addition, domestic feed prices are firmer (prices up USD6/tonne the past two weeks) as feed demand has come to the market.