World: Slow decline in global barley production forecast continues

The slow decline in world barley production continues, with a further reduction of -0.9 mln tonnes to 144.3 mln, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

The six major barley producing regions of the world (Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU27+UK, Ukraine, Russia) are expected to produce only +1.2 mln tonnes over crop’23's output. The reduction comes mainly from Canada (-0.3 mln tonnes), EU27+UK (-0.4 mln), and Ukraine (-0.2 mln) with Russia unchanged for now.

As barley production slips, demand is slightly higher and influenced by concerns about corn/maize production being reduced. Ending stocks are declining to 16.0 mln tonnes, the lowest level in 11 years. Further, the weather in North America and the Black Sea could further tighten the barley balance sheet.

Global barley prices are mostly steady as problems developing in the northern hemisphere are being offset to an extent by the good crop progress in the southern hemisphere. Outside markets, corn and wheat, are higher and continue to influence barley prices, both malting and feed. The overall malting barley price structure, by origin, remains the same, with France leading the price ladder, supported by a confirmed shortfall in winter barley production. A continued lack of farmer selling permeates globally, and now weather challenges may further inhibit liquidity.