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World: Barley crop forecast reduced by 1.3 mln tonnes
The critical harvest period has now arrived in Europe and clarity to yield and quality results with it. RMI Analytics’ global barley crop forecast is reduced by 1.3 mln tonnes to 145.2 mln, with Ukraine up 0.3 mln, offset by: EU27+UK minus 0.3 mln tonnes (including Spain up 0.8 mln but France/Germany down); Canada down 0.3 mln tonnes (on lower planted area), Russia minus 0.5 mln tonnes and ‘rest of world’ down 0.5 mln tonnes.
In a long-term perspective, a global barley crop at ~145 mln tonnes is below the 5-year and 10-year averages, the analysts said.
Crop problems in Russia began the decline in production and sparked a major market rally in wheat markets. As harvest advances across Russia’s key growing regions, the results are mixed, with certain regions reporting better than expected yields, while other regions are reporting disappointing results. Clearly, Russia’s grain production is reduced, including barley. Black Sea crop’23 exports finished strong but drop in crop’24 due to the smaller crop.
Market focus remains on the crop harvest in Europe, while demand recovery still remains a question. China’s imported barley tonnage has doubled over the crop’22 volumes. In addition, there are small signs of improving brewing malt demand in parts of the world. In total, some optimism is starting to appear for a malt demand recovery.
As global barley production shrinks, the market appears to be caught between the fundamental barley story and outside forces like wheat, which have been weighing on barley prices. Lower French yields push prices up, but an improving global picture leaves the market at an important junction. Outside markets (corn and wheat) will undoubtedly continue to influence barley prices, but at some stage our expectation remain that barley fundamentals will ultimately come back into play, RMI Analytics said.
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