14 June, 2024

World: Barley trade forecast reduced on smaller export expectations in a number of countries

Global barley trade 2024-25 is forecast at 28.679 mln tonnes in USDA’s June report, down from 29.079 mln tonnes forecast in May due to reduced exports expectations for the EU, Russia, Argentina, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. Shipments forecast is only up for Australia (6 mln tonnes vs. 5.4 mln forecast in May).

Barley import forecast is increased for China (10.2 mln tonnes vs 10 mln in May) and decreased by 500 thousand tonnes to 2.5 mln for Saudi Arabia.

Barley crop forecast is significantly reduced this month – at 147.955 mln tonnes vs. 149.91 mln in May, however, still higher than the 142.211 mln tonnes estimated for crop 2023-24. Numbers have been revised downwards for the EU (53.8 mln tonnes vs 54.5 mln forecast in May), Russia (19 mln vs. 19.5), Ukraine (5 mln tonnes from 5.2 mln), and Argentina (4.7 mln vs 5.2 mln last month). Australia’s crop forecast is up at 11.5 mln tonnes versus 10.9 mln in USDA’s May report.

Global barley consumption forecast is set at 148.543 mln tonnes this month (149.998 mln in the May forecast, 144.125 mln in 2023-24) and ending stocks at 18.269 mln tonnes (18.536 and 18.857 mln tones, respectively).

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