North America: Barley crops expected to increase this year

A rebound in North American barley production is estimated for 2022: Canada’s crop is forecast to total 9.7 mln tonnes versus 6.9 mln in 2021/22 and the US production is seen at 3.7 vs. 2.5 mln tonnes, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

For Canada, planted area is expected to be down and the RMI analysts’ estimate is -4% while others are as high as -8%. RMI Analytics continue to believe that brewer/maltster efforts to contract malting barley will ultimately limit barley’s decline.

For the US, a much different picture exists with barley area forecast up +10-15% (the RMI Analytics number is +10%).

The result is Canada rebounds to 9.7 mln tonnes on a return to long-term average yields; the US makes a more dramatic improvement, up to 3.7 mln tonnes. A return to a normal malting barley quality result would dramatically improve the North American and global barley situation.

Despite the arrival of substantial rain across much of North America, the rain has only given partial relief to dryness in the major barley (and wheat) growing areas. Farmers remain cautious in contracting new crop volumes following the drought impacts from last year.