22 June, 2007

Black Sea Region: If the Ukraine and partly Russia dropped out of the international feed barley markets, price levels could easily rise further

It has been hot and dry since many weeks in the Black Sea region, since three weeks also in Russia, everywhere in the black soil country south of Moscow, market analysts commented on June 4th. Only the West and North of the Ukraine have received some showers, limiting damage to the crops.

Estimates of the Ukrainian barley crop have been reduced from 10.3 to about 8.5 million tonnes, but that may not be the full truth. The Ukrainian government, weakened by the political problems of the country, is preparing an export embargo for new crop wheat, and shippers are afraid it may be followed by a stop of barley exports as well.

The temporary embargo of last year has cost the trade much money so that all operators work with greatest caution. If the Ukraine and partly Russia dropped out of the international feed barley markets, price levels could easily rise further. Another question is whether Russia and Ukraine will have enough malting barley for their own needs.

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